Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAATD39041
Boîte fleur de douche 309
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▼ 6.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
216
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
42
≈ 36.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 12
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-09
AAATD39041
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 118 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Boîte fleur de douche 309 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending down -6.2% · on-hand 43 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (448 days of history, 69 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.66 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 8.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 17.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 10.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 10.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 34.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 118.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.4K |