Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAATB72324
Cotons-Tiges 100 pcs
longtail
1P
HYGIENE NEZ ET OREILLE
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▲ 42.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
24
≈ 15.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 4
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAATB72324
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 75 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cotons-Tiges 100 pcs · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending up +42.9% · on-hand 24 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (378 days of history, 83 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.75 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 5.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 21.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 4.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 24.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 74.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 321 |