Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAATB72300
Disques de Coton - SOFRESH - Rectangulaires - 50 pcs - Doux - Résistants - Peaux Sensibles
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
13
▲ 550.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
1
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
1
≈ 1.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 13
avg of last 27 sells · latest 2026-09-27
AAATB72300
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 50 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Disques de Coton - SOFRESH - Rectangulaires - 50 pcs - Doux - Résistants - Peaux Sensibles · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 13 units, trending up +550.0% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (469 days of history, 41 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.83 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 13 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 4.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 3.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 50.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 640 |