Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAST58054
Mug - Verre - 350 Ml - Couvercle en bois - Paille en verre - Résistant aux chocs thermiques
longtail
3P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▲ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
59
≈ 23.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 40
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAST58054
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 118 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Mug - Verre - 350 Ml - Couvercle en bois - Paille en verre - Résistant aux chocs thermiques · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending up +33.3% · on-hand 59 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (364 days of history, 132 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.15 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 6.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 26.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 118.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.7K |