Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAASM69309
Lot de 3 : Gel Nettoyant éclaircissant 200ML, Crème anti-taches brunes 50ML et écran protection 50ML
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
27
▼ 37.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
14
≈ 1.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 111
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAASM69309
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 377 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lot de 3 : Gel Nettoyant éclaircissant 200ML, Crème anti-taches brunes 50ML et écran protection 50ML · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 27 units, trending down -37.2% · on-hand 14 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (371 days of history, 759 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.39 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 27 units · prev 4w = 43 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 17.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 56.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 125.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 27.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 136.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 376.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 9.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 41.7K |