Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAASM41252
Crème solaire - Photo White - Ecran Invisible - SPF 50+ - 50 ml - Hypoallergénique
longtail
1P + 3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
309
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
16
≈ 24.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 164
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-28
AAASM41252
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 60 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème solaire - Photo White - Ecran Invisible - SPF 50+ - 50 ml - Hypoallergénique · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -25.0% · on-hand 17 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (413 days of history, 33 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.57 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 8.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 27.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 59.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.7K |