Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAASM24749
Capila Shampoing 200ml+ Lotion 125ml+ Serum 30ml Pack Anti-Chute
hero
1P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
20
▲ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
31
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
31
≈ 4.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 193
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-29
AAASM24749
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 747 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Capila Shampoing 200ml+ Lotion 125ml+ Serum 30ml Pack Anti-Chute · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 20 units, trending up +33.3% · on-hand 31 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (483 days of history, 464 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.92 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 20 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 234.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 18.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 14.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 77.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 746.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 10.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 144.3K |