Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAASM24749
Capila Shampoing 200ml+ Lotion 125ml+ Serum 30ml Pack Anti-Chute
hero
1P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
73
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
73
≈ 9.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 200
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-31
AAASM24749
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 378 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Capila Shampoing 200ml+ Lotion 125ml+ Serum 30ml Pack Anti-Chute · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 73 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (420 days of history, 449 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.91 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 5.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 25.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 143.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 60.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 378.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 75.5K |