Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAASL87194
La Roche-Posay Cicaplast Baume Cicatrisant B5+ Peau Fragilisée | 100ml = Eau Thermale 50ml Offerte
hero
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
68
▼ 70.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 156
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAASL87194
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 615 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
La Roche-Posay Cicaplast Baume Cicatrisant B5+ Peau Fragilisée | 100ml = Eau Thermale 50ml Offerte · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 68 units, trending down -70.3% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (371 days of history, 614 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.12 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 68 units · prev 4w = 229 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 51.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 143.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 257.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 75.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 292.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 615.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 19.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 95.7K |