Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAASK32227
Pack La Roche-Posay Anthelios UVMune 400 SPF 50+ + Eau Thermale 50 ml Offerte
longtail
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
41
▲ 41.4% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
16,934
≈ 8029.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 152
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAASK32227
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 84 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pack La Roche-Posay Anthelios UVMune 400 SPF 50+ + Eau Thermale 50 ml Offerte · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 41 units, trending up +41.4% · on-hand 16934 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (378 days of history, 110 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.18 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 41 units · prev 4w = 29 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 28.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 8.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 83.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 12.7K |