Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAASK32227
Pack La Roche-Posay Anthelios UVMune 400 SPF 50+ + Eau Thermale 50 ml Offerte
longtail
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 82.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
611
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 142
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-28
AAASK32227
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 146 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pack La Roche-Posay Anthelios UVMune 400 SPF 50+ + Eau Thermale 50 ml Offerte · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -82.9% · on-hand 1670 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (420 days of history, 139 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.08 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 41 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 18.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 73.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 145.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 20.8K |