Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAASH99506
Casio Montre Homme Quartz Analogique Cadran Noir acier inoxydable-mtp-v006d-1b2udf
longtail
3P
MONTRES
Last 4 weeks demand
3
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
4
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 475
avg of last 16 sells · latest 2026-07-27
AAASH99506
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 34 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Casio Montre Homme Quartz Analogique Cadran Noir acier inoxydable-mtp-v006d-1b2udf · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 4 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (420 days of history, 14 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.32 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 19.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 1.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 8.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 34.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 16.2K |