Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARR86857
Seoul Glam mousse nettoyante de riz 200 ml
hero
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
38
▼ 36.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
29
≈ 3.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 52
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAARR86857
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 392 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Seoul Glam mousse nettoyante de riz 200 ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 38 units, trending down -36.7% · on-hand 29 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (385 days of history, 496 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 38 units · prev 4w = 60 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 13.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 63.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 163.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 26.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 130.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 391.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 12.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 20.4K |