Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARQ18661
Sérum vitamine C anti-rides anti-âge acide blanchiment de peau 30ML
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 84.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
147
≈ 57.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 38
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAARQ18661
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 116 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sérum vitamine C anti-rides anti-âge acide blanchiment de peau 30ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -84.6% · on-hand 147 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (371 days of history, 137 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.84 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 10.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 31.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 116.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.4K |