Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARQ18661
Sérum vitamine C anti-rides anti-âge acide blanchiment de peau 30ML
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
165
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 39
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-15
AAARQ18661
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 163 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sérum vitamine C anti-rides anti-âge acide blanchiment de peau 30ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 29 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (441 days of history, 138 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.84 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 50.2 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 6.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 28.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 162.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.4K |