Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARL51531
Barbecue Rond - GENERIC - 66x57x85cm - Noir - Couvercle - Roues - Charbon
longtail
1P
CUISINE EXTERIEURE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 28.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 578
avg of last 24 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAARL51531
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 71 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Barbecue Rond - GENERIC - 66x57x85cm - Noir - Couvercle - Roues - Charbon · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -28.6% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (350 days of history, 29 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 22.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 71.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 41.1K |