Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARK63730
Gel Nettoyant Purifiant - CHRISTELLE PARIS - 200 ml - Peaux grasses - Acné - Élimine les impuretés
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▼ 35.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
977
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 31
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-29
AAARK63730
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 205 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel Nettoyant Purifiant - CHRISTELLE PARIS - 200 ml - Peaux grasses - Acné - Élimine les impuretés · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending down -35.3% · on-hand 981 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (504 days of history, 336 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.15 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 80.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 13.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 10.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 44.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 205.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 9.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.4K |