Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARK63730
Gel Nettoyant Purifiant - CHRISTELLE PARIS - 200 ml - Peaux grasses - Acné - Élimine les impuretés
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
992
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 42
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAARK63730
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 355 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel Nettoyant Purifiant - CHRISTELLE PARIS - 200 ml - Peaux grasses - Acné - Élimine les impuretés · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 992 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (441 days of history, 487 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.12 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 22.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 124.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 52.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 354.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 14.9K |