Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARI57309
Chaise de camping - CK - CK-002F - Pliable - Ergonomique - Tissu résistant
longtail
1P
CAMPING - CAMP DE BASE
Last 4 weeks demand
55
▼ 16.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
1
≈ 0.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL
Unit price
MAD 77
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAARI57309
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 446 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Chaise de camping - CK - CK-002F - Pliable - Ergonomique - Tissu résistant · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 55 units, trending down -16.7% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (420 days of history, 128 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.62 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 55 units · prev 4w = 66 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 31.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 143.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 12.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 112.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 445.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 34.3K |