Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARH49042
Kit de sécurité 3 en 1 : triangle, gilet réfléchissant et extincteur avec housse.
longtail
3P
AIDE A LA CONDUITE - SECURITE
Last 4 weeks demand
22
▼ 12.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
15
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 54
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAARH49042
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 162 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Kit de sécurité 3 en 1 : triangle, gilet réfléchissant et extincteur avec housse. · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 22 units, trending down -12.0% · on-hand 16 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (441 days of history, 103 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.91 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 22 units · prev 4w = 25 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 7.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 27.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 83.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 46.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 161.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.7K |