Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARH25485
Masque en Feuille Cica Arbre Thé Seoul Glam 25ml
midtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
28
▲ 154.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
9,154
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
51
≈ 7.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 8
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAARH25485
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 135 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Masque en Feuille Cica Arbre Thé Seoul Glam 25ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 28 units, trending up +154.5% · on-hand 51 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (490 days of history, 369 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.65 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 28 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 51.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 11.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 135.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 11.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.0K |