Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARH25485
Masque en Feuille Cica Arbre Thé Seoul Glam 25ml
hero
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
18
▼ 41.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
10,711
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
50
≈ 6.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 8
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAARH25485
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 344 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Masque en Feuille Cica Arbre Thé Seoul Glam 25ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 18 units, trending down -41.9% · on-hand 50 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (427 days of history, 386 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.57 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 18 units · prev 4w = 31 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 9.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 42.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 168.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 16.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 72.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 343.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 8.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.7K |