Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARH25279
Masque en Feuille Acide Hyaluronique Seoul Glam 25ml
hero
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
33
▼ 23.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
12,949
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
36
≈ 1.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAARH25279
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 345 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Masque en Feuille Acide Hyaluronique Seoul Glam 25ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 33 units, trending down -23.3% · on-hand 36 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (294 days of history, 887 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.03 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 33 units · prev 4w = 43 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 11.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 46.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 168.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 17.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 84.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 344.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 8.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.1K |