Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARH24747
Masque Visage Hydratant en Feuille de Riz Seoul Glam – 25 ml
hero
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
56
▼ 35.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAARH24747
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 414 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Masque Visage Hydratant en Feuille de Riz Seoul Glam – 25 ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 56 units, trending down -35.6% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (238 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 56 units · prev 4w = 87 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 14.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 60.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 146.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 31.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 162.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 413.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 11.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.7K |