Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARG51837
Crème - Seoul Glam - 50ml - Hydratante - Nourrissante - Tous types de peau
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
16
▼ 57.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
154
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 47
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAARG51837
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 358 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème - Seoul Glam - 50ml - Hydratante - Nourrissante - Tous types de peau · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 16 units, trending down -57.9% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (511 days of history, 563 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.57 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 16 units · prev 4w = 38 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 96.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 29.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 15.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 100.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 357.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 9.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 17.0K |