Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARG51837
Crème - Seoul Glam - 50ml - Hydratante - Nourrissante - Tous types de peau
hero
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
48
▼ 27.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-4.0%
vs same 4w last year (50 units)
Current stock
10
≈ 1.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 52
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAARG51837
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 429 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème - Seoul Glam - 50ml - Hydratante - Nourrissante - Tous types de peau · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 48 units, trending down -27.3% · on-hand 10 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (392 days of history, 452 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.55 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 48 units · prev 4w = 66 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 19.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 69.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 162.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 31.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 150.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 429.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 12.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 22.5K |