Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARG51798
Toner - Seoul Glam - Toner de Riz - 150ml - Non comédogène - Sans parabène
midtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 65.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
374
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
17
≈ 3.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 58
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAARG51798
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 140 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Toner - Seoul Glam - Toner de Riz - 150ml - Non comédogène - Sans parabène · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -65.2% · on-hand 18 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (448 days of history, 313 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.59 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 23 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 5.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 23.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 75.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 40.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 139.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.2K |