Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARG51795
Verres à Eau - GENERIC - XM21B - 270ml - Lot de 6 - Transparent - Compatible lave-vaisselle
longtail
1P + 3P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▲ 22.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
110
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
8
≈ 4.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 42
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAARG51795
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 259 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Verres à Eau - GENERIC - XM21B - 270ml - Lot de 6 - Transparent - Compatible lave-vaisselle · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending up +22.2% · on-hand 8 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (308 days of history, 90 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.99 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 74.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 6.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 259.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.8K |