Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARG51795
Verres à Eau - GENERIC - XM21B - 270ml - Lot de 6 - Transparent - Compatible lave-vaisselle
longtail
1P + 3P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
21
▼ 8.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
199
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
36
≈ 18.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 47
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAARG51795
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 141 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Verres à Eau - GENERIC - XM21B - 270ml - Lot de 6 - Transparent - Compatible lave-vaisselle · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 21 units, trending down -8.7% · on-hand 36 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (245 days of history, 70 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.05 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 21 units · prev 4w = 23 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 19.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 67.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 36.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 141.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.6K |