Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARG51784
Masque en Feuille - Gelée Royale Miel - 25ml - Non comédogène - Tous types de peau
midtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
20
▲ 185.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
1,153
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
7
≈ 1.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 8
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAARG51784
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 154 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Masque en Feuille - Gelée Royale Miel - 25ml - Non comédogène - Tous types de peau · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 20 units, trending up +185.7% · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (511 days of history, 383 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.63 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 20 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 58.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 9.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 153.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.2K |