Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARG51784
Masque en Feuille - Gelée Royale Miel - 25ml - Non comédogène - Tous types de peau
hero
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
27
▼ 37.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+92.9%
vs same 4w last year (14 units)
Current stock
36
≈ 4.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAARG51784
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 284 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Masque en Feuille - Gelée Royale Miel - 25ml - Non comédogène - Tous types de peau · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 27 units, trending down -37.2% · on-hand 36 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (392 days of history, 400 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.56 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 27 units · prev 4w = 43 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 7.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 37.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 106.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 18.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 88.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 283.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 8.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.6K |