Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARG51773
Seoul Glam Sérum de Riz 50ml
midtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
18
▼ 14.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-58.1%
vs same 4w last year (43 units)
Current stock
12
≈ 2.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 55
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAARG51773
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 137 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Seoul Glam Sérum de Riz 50ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 18 units, trending down -14.3% · on-hand 12 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (392 days of history, 210 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.69 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 18 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 19.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 51.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 10.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 48.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 136.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.4K |