Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARD92091
Poupée Chiffon - GENERIC - F1411622 - 14 pouces - Couleur & Motif aléatoires - Pour enfants de 3 à 10 ans
longtail
3P
POUPEE - PELUCHE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▲ 150.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
125
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 82
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-07
AAARD92091
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 168 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Poupée Chiffon - GENERIC - F1411622 - 14 pouces - Couleur & Motif aléatoires - Pour enfants de 3 à 10 ans · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending up +150.0% · on-hand 144 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (308 days of history, 75 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 2.00 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 34.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 13.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 45.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 167.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 13.8K |