Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARD92091
Poupée Chiffon - GENERIC - F1411622 - 14 pouces - Couleur & Motif aléatoires - Pour enfants de 3 à 10 ans
longtail
3P
POUPEE - PELUCHE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 96.1% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
70
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 82
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAARD92091
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 153 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Poupée Chiffon - GENERIC - F1411622 - 14 pouces - Couleur & Motif aléatoires - Pour enfants de 3 à 10 ans · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -96.1% · on-hand 81 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (238 days of history, 67 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.89 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 51 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 17.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 72.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 34.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 152.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 12.6K |