Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAARB24995
Set 3 Boîtes Hobbylife Deco Trend 300 ML 02 0905
longtail
3P
EMBALLAGE ALIMENTAIRE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
127
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 10
avg of last 15 sells · latest 2026-08-27
AAARB24995
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 16 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Set 3 Boîtes Hobbylife Deco Trend 300 ML 02 0905 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (476 days of history, 15 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.37 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 3.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 0.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 1.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 8.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 15.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 0.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 162 |