Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAQY25728
Lilo & Stitch plush watch kids cartoon montre à Quartz disney, series tv
longtail
3P
MONTRES
Last 4 weeks demand
2
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
8
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-06-30
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-06-30 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 71
avg of last 11 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAQY25728
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 40 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lilo & Stitch plush watch kids cartoon montre à Quartz disney, series tv · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, stable demand · on-hand 8 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (378 days of history, 13 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.26 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 13.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 10.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 39.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.8K |