Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAQS12558
Canvas à Peindre 30x30cm
longtail
3P
PAPIER - CAHIER - CARNET
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
36
▼ 10.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
11
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P)
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-26
AAAQS12558
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 150 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Canvas à Peindre 30x30cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 36 units, trending down -10.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (518 days of history, 176 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.31 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 36 units · prev 4w = 40 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 28.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 7.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 16.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 57.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 150.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.4K |