Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAQQ93079
Huile Lavante Moussante - CeraVe - 473ml - Hydratante - Peau Très Sèche - Baume Miniature Offert
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▲ 75.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
94
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
94
≈ 41.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 151
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAQQ93079
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 164 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Huile Lavante Moussante - CeraVe - 473ml - Hydratante - Peau Très Sèche - Baume Miniature Offert · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending up +75.0% · on-hand 94 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (455 days of history, 122 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.10 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 14.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 69.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 164.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 24.8K |