Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAQQ14174
Bonbonnière en verre - DM605-2 - 490 g - Transparent - Design élégant - Pour adultes
longtail
3P
SERVICE DE TABLE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
20
new activity (no prior baseline)
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 18
avg of last 29 sells · latest 2026-03-16
AAAQQ14174
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 66 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bonbonnière en verre - DM605-2 - 490 g - Transparent - Design élégant - Pour adultes · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 20 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (385 days of history, 63 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.51 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 20 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 6.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 19.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 66.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.2K |