Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAQQ14173
Bouteille d’eau - GENERIC - 300 ml - Verre - Transparent - Compacte et pratique
longtail
1P + 3P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 22.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
478
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
3
≈ 1.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 18
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAAQQ14173
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 71 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bouteille d’eau - GENERIC - 300 ml - Verre - Transparent - Compacte et pratique · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -22.2% · on-hand 3 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (511 days of history, 93 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.07 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 14.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 8.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 71.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.3K |