Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAQQ13610
douchette pliable L-00857 - 900ML
longtail
1P
USTENSILES DE CUISINE
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▼ 41.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
7
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
7
≈ 4.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 12
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAQQ13610
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 75 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
douchette pliable L-00857 - 900ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending down -41.2% · on-hand 8 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (287 days of history, 74 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.67 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 38.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 75.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 934 |