Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAQN81952
shampoing Cadum Soin & Vitalité À L'Huile Noix Coco 650 ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
132
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
13
≈ 13.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 24
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-09
AAAQN81952
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 52 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
shampoing Cadum Soin & Vitalité À L'Huile Noix Coco 650 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 13 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (511 days of history, 43 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.62 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 7.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 2.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 13.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 51.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.2K |