Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAQM99981
Bocaux de conserve 50 cl
longtail
3P
CONSERVATION DES ALIMENTS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 20
avg of last 20 sells · latest 2026-08-28
AAAQM99981
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 162 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bocaux de conserve 50 cl · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (420 days of history, 74 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.91 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 17.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 62.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 19.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 162.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.3K |