Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAQH39406
Vase en Verre - HP250-31 - 24,5cm - Transparent - Design Contemporain - Objets Décoratifs
longtail
1P
VASE - COUPE - FLEUR
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 87.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
5
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
5
≈ 7.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 30
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-11
AAAQH39406
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 88 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Vase en Verre - HP250-31 - 24,5cm - Transparent - Design Contemporain - Objets Décoratifs · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -87.5% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (455 days of history, 33 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.74 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 3.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 28.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 88.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.7K |