Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAQG43881
Glacière Lilac - Sorbet Pop Polarbox 20L
longtail
3P
GLACE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
new activity (no prior baseline)
Year-over-year
-50.0%
vs same 4w last year (6 units)
Current stock
5
≈ 20.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 270
avg of last 11 sells · latest 2025-06-19
AAAQG43881
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 0 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Glacière Lilac - Sorbet Pop Polarbox 20L · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (399 days of history, 4 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.47 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | — units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | — units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | — units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | — units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | — units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | — units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | — |