Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAQG43869
Ceinture - Polarbox - Geometric Brown - Sangle élégante - Durable - 95 cm x 14 cm
longtail
1P + 3P
ACCESSOIRES BAGAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
22
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
6
≈ 18.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 39
avg of last 21 sells · latest 2026-10-08
AAAQG43869
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-12 · Total forecast: 109 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ceinture - Polarbox - Geometric Brown - Sangle élégante - Durable - 95 cm x 14 cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -20.0% · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (497 days of history, 19 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.45 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 3.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 5.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 108.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.2K |