Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAQG25864
GARNIER - Super UV Serum Invisible Sunscreen 30ml
hero
3P
SOLAIRES
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
38
▼ 51.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
299
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
1
≈ 0.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 59
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAQG25864
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 320 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
GARNIER - Super UV Serum Invisible Sunscreen 30ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 38 units, trending down -51.9% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (469 days of history, 620 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.77 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 38 units · prev 4w = 79 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 14.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 54.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 175.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 20.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 84.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 320.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 8.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 18.9K |