Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAQG25864
GARNIER - Super UV Serum Invisible Sunscreen 30ml
hero
1P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
45
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Year-over-year
-65.1%
vs same 4w last year (129 units)
Current stock
1
≈ 0.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 58
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAQG25864
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 288 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
GARNIER - Super UV Serum Invisible Sunscreen 30ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 45 units, stable demand · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (413 days of history, 742 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 45 units · prev 4w = 45 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 11.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 43.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 112.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 19.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 94.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 287.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 8.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 16.8K |