Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAQE49532
Skala - Crème Bouclante - Mais Cachos - 1000 g - Hydratante - Volume - 2en1
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 55.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-27.3%
vs same 4w last year (11 units)
Current stock
200
≈ 71.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 100
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAQE49532
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 145 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Skala - Crème Bouclante - Mais Cachos - 1000 g - Hydratante - Volume - 2en1 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -55.6% · on-hand 200 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (420 days of history, 140 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.68 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 18 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 20.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 53.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 11.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 49.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 144.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 14.4K |