Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAQA84485
-Maybelline New York Lifter Crayon Contour des Lèvres 1,2 g (Teinte : 09 Peaking)
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
17
≈ 26.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 55
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-21
AAAQA84485
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 44 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
-Maybelline New York Lifter Crayon Contour des Lèvres 1,2 g (Teinte : 09 Peaking) · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 17 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (336 days of history, 31 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.44 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 13.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 2.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 12.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 43.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.4K |