Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPY49561
Armoire chambre Rangement Penderie de vêtement en tissu 170 × 45 × 170 cm (couleur aléatoire)
longtail
3P
MEUBLE DE CHAMBRE
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▲ 233.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+150.0%
vs same 4w last year (4 units)
Current stock
11
≈ 5.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 262
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAPY49561
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 59 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Armoire chambre Rangement Penderie de vêtement en tissu 170 × 45 × 170 cm (couleur aléatoire) · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending up +233.3% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (420 days of history, 106 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.64 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 5.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 17.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 4.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 58.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 15.4K |