Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPU09415
Boîte à mouchoirs - GENERIC - EP-636 - Transparent - Design élégant - Pratique pour bureau
longtail
1P + 3P
OBJET DE DECORATION - BIBELOT
Last 4 weeks demand
30
▲ 650.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
18
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
12
≈ 10.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 32
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAAPU09415
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 154 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Boîte à mouchoirs - GENERIC - EP-636 - Transparent - Design élégant - Pratique pour bureau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 30 units, trending up +650.0% · on-hand 13 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (434 days of history, 64 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.25 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 30 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 6.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 21.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 64.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 44.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 154.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.9K |