Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPU09415
Boîte à mouchoirs - GENERIC - EP-636 - Transparent - Design élégant - Pratique pour bureau
longtail
1P
OBJET DE DECORATION - BIBELOT
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 44.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
5
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
5
≈ 3.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 28
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-18
AAAPU09415
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 114 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Boîte à mouchoirs - GENERIC - EP-636 - Transparent - Design élégant - Pratique pour bureau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -44.4% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (483 days of history, 81 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.13 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 24.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 113.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.1K |