Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAPU09413
Lot de 2 Thermos Isothermes Premium – 0,7 L & 1,0 L
longtail
1P
MULTISPORT
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 80.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
24
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
24
≈ 16.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 103
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-20
AAAPU09413
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 101 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lot de 2 Thermos Isothermes Premium – 0,7 L & 1,0 L · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -80.0% · on-hand 24 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (294 days of history, 62 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.67 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 12.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 5.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 23.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 101.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.4K |