Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPT08653
Boîte de Conservation Hermétique 180ml EP-165
longtail
1P
EMBALLAGE ALIMENTAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
new activity (no prior baseline)
Year-over-year
-66.7%
vs same 4w last year (6 units)
Current stock
23
≈ 13.8 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 7
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-01
AAAPT08653
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 183 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Boîte de Conservation Hermétique 180ml EP-165 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 23 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (406 days of history, 90 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.88 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 16.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 45.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 13.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 64.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 183.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.3K |