Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPS23447
Crayons Graphite - AUCHAN - 3 Crayons - 17,4cm - Mine HB - Pour Enfants
longtail
3P
DESSIN - COLORIAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 91.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
288
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 3
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-22
AAAPS23447
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 80 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crayons Graphite - AUCHAN - 3 Crayons - 17,4cm - Mine HB - Pour Enfants · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -91.7% · on-hand 391 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (511 days of history, 30 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.82 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 24 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 17.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 9.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 80.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 273 |