Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPS17174
Kojie San Savon éclaircissant koojie san à l'acide kojic pour la peau et le visage, 135 g
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 78.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-25.0%
vs same 4w last year (4 units)
Current stock
11
≈ 5.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 40
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAPS17174
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 68 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Kojie San Savon éclaircissant koojie san à l'acide kojic pour la peau et le visage, 135 g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -78.6% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (392 days of history, 112 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.60 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 26.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 25.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 67.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.7K |