Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPO38858
Maybelline New York - Blush à Lèvres Teddy Tint - Effet Mat Fondu - Tenue Longue Durée - Teinte : Skinnydip (15)
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
0
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
20
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 78
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-06-10
AAAPO38858
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 61 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Maybelline New York - Blush à Lèvres Teddy Tint - Effet Mat Fondu - Tenue Longue Durée - Teinte : Skinnydip (15) · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, stable demand · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (434 days of history, 103 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 9.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 31.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 61.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.8K |