Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPN66201
Terreau de Rempotage 10L
longtail
3P
JARDINAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▼ 42.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
205
≈ 76.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 28
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAPN66201
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 159 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Terreau de Rempotage 10L · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending down -42.9% · on-hand 205 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (224 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.63 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 5.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 21.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 52.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 12.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 56.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 159.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.5K |