Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPN66178
Assiette Creuse - GENERIC - Dessin Love - Porcelaine - 19cm - Compatible lave-vaisselle
longtail
1P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
23
Σ Stock across 4 live offers
1P stock
23
≈ 17.8 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 19
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAPN66178
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 119 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Assiette Creuse - GENERIC - Dessin Love - Porcelaine - 19cm - Compatible lave-vaisselle · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 23 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (434 days of history, 62 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.85 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 25.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 118.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.2K |