Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAPM09271
LUBRIFIANT MOTUL 5100 10W-40 4T - 1L
longtail
3P
NETTOYAGE - LIQUIDES ENTRETIEN
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
20
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-06-30
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-06-30 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 97
avg of last 21 sells · latest 2026-04-15
AAAPM09271
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 49 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
LUBRIFIANT MOTUL 5100 10W-40 4T - 1L · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (385 days of history, 18 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 13.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 11.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 49.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.8K |